I’ve been blogging now for a year and in that time I’ve realized that this whole blogging exercise is a perfectly designed self-analysis of what is dominating my thought process.  If this truly was the ecclectic blog I’d like it to be, it would have a hell of a lot more on it than the multiple news headlines and sporadic music posts.  I just can’t get work out of my head.  I slave under the Tyranny of the Market and  it’s dominating my entire existence.  It’s time to self-medicate.

That said, here’s a quick round-up, but from this point forward, I’m going to try and mix it up around here.

MARKET

Relax people - Equity Pullbacks Part of Every Recovery

Bill Gross Likes Canada - Canada Among Top Choices, plus (read)

What does Bill Gates think? - Bill Gates Annual Letter

Spotting the Next Bubble - A Simple Style Rotation Model

Commodities?  - Scotia Commodity Price Index Rises 2.9%

BRIC? - BRIC IPOs See Record January at $6.7 Billion

Coal? - Peak Coal and Blackout

ECON

IMF likes what it sees - IMF More Upbeat on World Economy

But ‘upbeat’ is a relative term - UK Still Stuck in the Mud

And all is dependent on a complicit central rate - US Fed Keeps Rates Low

A voice in the wilderness that makes sense - Time to Raise Rates

The true price tag for ‘change’ - US Deficit to Hit $1.35 Trillion

The true effects of ‘change’ - Obama Seeks to Freeze Domestic Spending

Visual Lesson - Hayek vs. Keynes

CARBON TRADING

Still not sure about it - SEC Voting on Climate Change Risk Disclosure

This doesn’t help - Conning the Climate: Inside the Carbon-Trading Shell Game

Maybe tonight will tell - Why Canadians Should Care

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

Will he mention the TIME cover? - Obama’s First State of the Union Address

Here’s something cool - Bullet Trains in the US

More Apple Mania - Apple Unveils Its iPad

A Golden Age for Readers?

Collapse in TIME

DJ Contest!

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Paul Volcker President Obama is out for blood, and it’s the right thing.  It’s past time banks do what their names entail, you know, banking.  That said, equity markets are finally making the correction they need to.  In that regard I can’t really say anything better than what David Rosenberg did yesterday:

“The U.S. dollar is still bid and this is compressing the commodity complex right now (oil down to $77.80/bbl) and gold is now making a move down towards its 100-day moving average of $1,086/oz after just breaking below the 50-day m.a. of $1,135). We see that for the first time in 18 months, the DXY index has made a bullish move above its 200-day moving average.

The fact that this is happening even with China reporting its much ballyhooed 10.7% growth rate for Q4 (consensus was 10.5%) in another signpost of what is priced in. A year ago, China was borderline recession but a massive fiscal and credit stimulus package unleashed a fury of risk-taking behavior. A year later, double-digit growth has prompted a series of tightening moves in China (the Peoples’ Bank of China nudged up bill rates again today) and this is now prompting a reassessment of the near-term landscape in terms of risk appetite and the outlook for commodities, which are still in a secular bull market but could still be in for a respite in coming months and quarters that will hopefully set the stage for a nice buying opportunity for investors who focus on the forest as opposed to the trees.”

That said, here’s a round up.

OIL / NAT GAS

The Oil Sands keep growing - Third Oil Sands Announcement

And here’s why - The US Needs all the Oil Sands It Can Get

But what about the gas? - Gas Could Deflate Peak Oil Theory

CARBON CREDITS

I’ve still got my doubts - FP Letters: Carbon Credit Debate

No doubt about global warming - Past Decade Warmest on Record

But lots of doubt about it’s potency - UN Climate Body Admits Gross Mistake

BANKING BATTLE

First he saves them, then he beats them - Obama Pushes for Bank Reform

And Paul Volcker gets his way - Volcker Rule Vindicates Former Fed Chief

Here’s the plan - Inside Obama’s Plan

This should be it’s name - Glass-Steagall Lite

Here are the effects? - How Bank Reforms Could Affect Banks

ECON

Meanwhile, for the 99.99% rest of Americans - The Great Recession Continues

And the Canadian Outlook isn’t so rosy - Carney Warns on Growth

Scratch that, the West is looking better - Economic Revival Sweeping Western Canada

Volcker Vindicated, Bernanke Bruised - Bernanke Faces Tighter Vote in Senate

And never a shortage of criticism for the Fed - Rewriting the Fed’s History

I really like this blog - American Dream of Fugue?

BRIC

My ancestral homeland, looking fine - Poland is Comfortable Without Bailouts

And, like always, caught in the middle - Russia Seeks Explanation for US Missles

But it’s always been that way - Poland-Russia Relations

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

The recession’s other victims - Howls for Help

How to destroy time at work - Pulse Radio

A daily dose of shit-for-brains - Broke Bank Mountain

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Posting less.  Working more.  Dreaming about running away the whole damn time.  I’ve found out that my two best friends from back east are coming out for 10 days during the Olympics…my liver is already hurting.  One of them is determined to find as many Swedes as humanly possible.  I’ll be content to just watch him ebarrass himself.

Annyways, here’s a round-up.  I’ll post something more fun later…I hope.

OIL / NAT GAS

Copenhagen fail, Oil Sands Growth - Conoco, Total to Expand in Oil Sands

Higher oil price, or higher food price, you decide - Brazil Open’s World’s First Ethanol Plant

Remember when T.Boone was all about wind?  Me neither - Pickens Turns to Gas

But does any of it matter? - Jeff Rubin Makes a Speech

Don’t worry, humanity finds ways to burn - E-Yikes!  Electric Bikes!

MARKETS

Buy Canada, we’re nice - Record Foreign Purchases of Canadian Bonds

(And we have a lot of what’s hot) - Commodities Draw Fund Investment

Russia likes us - Russian Invests Forex Reserves in Loonie

The herd hasn’t arrived yet, we’re not at the top - 87% of Investors Missed Out in 2009

Meanwhile, the other 13% had a blast - Bullish at the Brink

But here’s some cause for concern - Insider Selling Outpaces Buying

ECON

The IMF likes what it seeks - IMF: Global Growth to Exceed 3%

But only if we’re stimulated - IMF: Double-Dip a Risk if Stimulus Ends Early

Bartenders, please invent a strong bitter cocktail named a ‘Roubini’ - The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

Because the mood in the bar is souring - Pub Power Index Turns Negative

Holier than Thou - Don’t Like the Numbers?  Change’em!

And in charge - White House, Congress Reach Deal on Debt Commission

With hecklers in the crowd - Extend and Pretend, the Inflation/Deflation Debate

And commentators in the corner - The Fed’s $1.25 Trillion Gambit

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

You’ve got 10 fingers, we’ve got 10,000 - stop pointing - Did Foreigners Cause America’s Financial Crisis?

The right moves for First Nations - First Nations, CEO’s Signal New Era

How to kill the copper price - Nikola Tesla is Electrifying Hip Techies

This pisses me off for a number of reasons.  Let’s try consumption control before population control, shall we? - The Real Inconvenient Truth

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Wow, you switch calendars and all of a sudden folks around the water coolers go from talking about the unstoppable rise of China to the ominous fear of a Chinese bubble.  The Chinese raise their rates and increase reserve minimums for loans and suddenly everyone sees an inflating bubble.  Even the introduction of advanced investment tools, which is a major step to westernizing financial markets was interpretted as a warning sign.

It seems that famous short-seller James Chanos’ misgivings on China sparked similar articles in the Washington Post and the NY Times.  The blogosophere is no different with ZeroHedge chipping in as well.

I must admit, I’ve been as susceptible to the Sinophilia that has been going around as anyone.  But hey, I’m long commodities, so why wouldn’t I like the Chinese?  That said, it’s never a bad idea to re-evaluate your opinions, but is China really setting itself up as Japantown 2.0?.

The artificially low yuan is a cause of both annoyance and concern.  Even more troubling is the dubious validity of official statistics from the Chinese government.

That said, I have to wonder if the recent concern is more American xenophobic anxiety reflected in their media rather than the level-headed analysis of facts as the Brits are wont to do in their own media.  Case in point, today’s Economist: China’s Economy is For Real.  But I’m painting the American’s with one brush here, how about the opinion of a Yank actually in the Far East: Thomas Friedman, Don’t Short China.

In my humble opinion, the problem with quantifying any Chinese bubble is that there is no true precident to compare it with, which makes the task extremely difficult.  The size of its population,  the rate of its industrialization, and the potency of it’s centralized and unencumbered government all combine to create a socio-economic event that effects the standard metrics which the West has traditionally used.  And this is my point, China has changed the metrics.

What?  Saying something like that should scare the bejezus out of me, it’s too much like ‘this time is different’, which is bubble-talk.  Let me make this clear - ‘this time is never different’.  We can’t kid ourselves, China is just as prone to an asset bubble as any market, but China is nothing like any market we have delt with before.  It’s demographics, politics, $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves and the highest personal savings rate of any nation on earth make for a new metric for traditional measurements.  The establishment of an effective (and trustworthy) social safety net there will only add further impetus to the China story.

I’m not saying that China is impervious to a bubble and crash.  It’s not.  What I am saying is that China is impervious to the current metrics with which many are applying to it.  We have to ask the simple (and seemingly obvious) question, are metrics blinding our perception? Let’s not forget the unprecedented shopping spree China just finished, we’re dealing with new metrics of growth here folks.

And it’s that rate of growth which should be the REAL cause for concern.  How does the world facilitate a terrifying rate of growth in face of incraesing scarcity of cheap resources?

Besides, for the moment I’m less concerned about over-heating across the Pacific and thinking more about markets closer to home that may be getting ready for a reset.

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The recovery is in full swing!  Happy times are here again!  Eat!  Drink!  Be merry!  That, at least, is the general consensus dominating most headlines right now.  But there’s a bubbly feeling to all of the journalistic largesse that my gut just can’t digest.  Yes, China’s exports are off the charts and the American’s trade deficit has widened more than expected.  And talk of emerging markets is only growing louder.  Meanwhile, here on the homefront, Carney & Company at the BoC sees no housing bubble in Canada.

All this good news (plus the spectacular rally of 2009) makes one think of the effects of this recession in the past tense.  So, having paticipated and enjoyed the effects of the rally in equities over the past year, what’s my beef?

I’m just feeling a little squeemish is all.  China did raise rates (albeit negligibly), but they’re also raising deposit limits on banks which gives one the impression of over-heating.  The Economist has an excellent article today about the bubbly effects of essentially free money via stimulus and the potential black swan effects of China pegging the Yuan to the US Dollar.  Buy it.  Read it.

Also, it’s no secret I like commodities, but they are as prone (even more prone) to bubbles as anything, not to mention their negative effects on actual recovery.  In this environment I’m getting a little wary regarding the short-term.

That said, here’s a round-up of bearish topics to cool the euphoria and keep one honest.

Spend for your country - When Your Country Calls, Spend Wildly

Spend anyway possible - UK: Paying the Mortgage with Credit

Stimulus = jobs…wait - US Road Projects Don’t Help Unemployed

Keep throwing, some has to stick - Krugman: More Stimulus Now

Can you afford a bump-up? - The End of Free Money

And what about a lost decade? - Can I Make Up 10 Years of Investment?

Perma-Bear Rosenberg says no - A Houdini Market

And he’s not alone - TSX Set for Steep Plunge in 2010

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

It’s supply/demand, until it isn’t - Hedge Fund Impact on Energy Trading

It works just like 2 for 1 pizza - Energy Consumption: Jevon’s Law

Candy for numbers nerds - The Numbers Behind Our Daily Lives

Archaeology is cool.  Period. - Slaved Didn’t Build the Pyramids?

Brunettes with blue eyes are cool.  Period. - Ashley Green Sells Skin SoBe

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