The problem with most pundits is that in order for them to justify their existence, they have be talking all the time.  That’s fine and dandy if you’re talking about a sports team or the latest twist on your favourite reality TV show, but when it come to macro-economic analysis and financial market forcasting, it’s a dangerous affair.

2008 showed pretty damn well that most punditry is a crystal-ball affair as 97% the ‘experts’ were off the mark by varying degrees in predicting the debacle in financial markets.  As for the 3% that correctly saw the end of the world coming, 99.9% of that group failed to anticipate the jaw droping 70% rally in equity markets that immediately followed the descent into hell.  Astute and correct market predictions are 1/3 brains, 1/3 experience and 1/3 timing (or luck, depending on how you term it).  Take David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates for example.  He is one of the perma-bears out there who repeatedly shows up on CNBC to bitch slap the perma-dolts.  How big a bear is he?  Enjoy:

There is this illusion that we are in a sustainable recovery, but instead what has happened is that the government fooled the public by printing massive amounts of money and expanded the Fed’s balance sheet to levels nobody ever thought could be possible.  Meanwhile, all the problems in State budgets are being ignored, as are the huge numbers of either empty houses or houses where the owners are not paying their mortgages, not to mention the changes in some basic accounting rules to help banks hide their losses.

Sounds like the life of the party to me, no?  But while I appreciate, and begrudingly agree, with much of what Mr. Rosenberg writes, the 1/3 that isn’t working for him is timing.  The last thing anyone should have been last March when the likes of Teck was under $4 was bearish.  A purchase of BC’s proud miner at that time would, today, net you a healthy capital gain of 1,000%.  Granted, last March was one of those once-in-a-lifetime evets (we all hope at least, eh?) that everyone looks back on with the shoulda, woulda, coulda schpeel, but my point is that had you swallowed what most pundits were saying at the time you would never have even thought about venturing into equities, which was the worst decision to have made.

Being right too early is the same thing as being wrong.  I don’t think Mr. Rosenberg is wrong, I just think he’s right too early.  So when perusing the punditry, keep in mind that the experts justify their own existence by repeating themselves and are loath to change their position, as to do so undermines that expertise they are espousing.

In this case, some dating advice my grandmother gave to me a long time ago seems suitable to the situation: you have to have a sampling of things before you know what feels right.  Dating.  Pundity.  Same stuff, different pile.

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Monday.  Even the way the word looks is ugly.  Ugh.  But it’s still not as bad as Hurt Locker.  Seriously, WTF?  I would have preferred the 10-foot tall smurfs.

Here’s to the suckiest day of the week:

ENERGY

Hum the Jaws theme while reading this - Oil & Gasoline Prices Sneaking Up

Rubin sticking it to supply chains - Expensive Oil Will Bring Things Home

QWest sticking it to global warming - Global Cooling: Opportunity?

METALS

I managed talk may way out of another trip to Toronto - PDAC 2010

Corrupting the young - Starting ‘em Young at PDAC

Getting in front of the bubble - Paulson & Soros Buy NovaGold

MARKETS

Yuan growing pains - Beijing Considers Severing USD Peg

Both are nice - Loonie Overtaking Aussie as Commodity Currency

Smoke and mirrors - The Money Illusion

Fear and trembling - Beware the Carry Trade Collapse

ECON

PIIGS alert - RBC’s Sovereign Debt Watch

Have lots and have nots - Euro Zone faces 2-Class Future

Still, Trichet like what he sees - Global Outlook Stronger

Maybe he’s right - Dow Bounces on US Jobs Report

The Temps would say so - Temp Hiring Leads NFP

Is it because of good will? - The Real Roots of Recovery

Show me the money! - Where Did the Fed Money Go?

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

I would hav love this - The 4-Day School Week

The feel good peice of the year - Why Capitalism Fails

Good fellas - Paper Crooks

An interesting number - 4 in 5 Consider Web Access a Right

In the attic the the micro machines - What Happened to Nano-Tech?

An Avatar Prequel - Another Planet for James Cameron

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I’m getting a little bit tired of the various gold bugs.  I’ve done well enough on gold (though I still like silver better), but in all honesty, I’m having a harder and harder time not thinking about energy.  Case in point, take a look at the 1 year performance of these junior oil & gas producers.  There isn’t a basket of gold stocks out there that holds a candle to these dudes.

Energy.  Period.

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A record number of gold, the last coming againt the Yanks.  What Canadian could have asked for more?  TIME even thinks we deserve a fifteenth gold.  I sure hope we all had fun because it’s a party that came with a price tag, which will become quickly apparent after our provincial budget.  Let the 2010 hangover begin!  Back to work, back to business, and back to normal (which has come as a surprising relief).

Here’s a super-size round-up:

ENERGY

What’s ‘colonialism’ in Mandarin? - Asia Buys Record Volume of West African Crude

What’s ‘colonialism’ in Korean? - Korean Gas Put $1 Billion into BC Gas

What’s ‘monopoly’ in Russian? - Putin Pushes for More Energy Investment

There’s just this one problem - Growth vs. Development

Which is also opportunity for a great energy source - The Transition Back to Coal

I’m still on the fence with this one - Nuclear and Oil Shale

METALS

Gold bugs hate this - Soros Sees Gold Bubble

Gold bugs will kill you for this - Why a Gold Standard is a Bad Idea

I like the more boring metals - Robust Demand Buoys Metals

Like fun-loving Molybdenum - Thompson Creek Looks to Expand

BRIC

China is big, but not as big as you think - East or Famine

And India may be over-stimulated - India to Review Economy Stimulus

Flying under the radar, Eastern Emerging Europe - Leaving the Past Behind

Case in point - Russia’s Silicon Valley

MARKETS

Inquiring minds want to know - When Will the Markets Get Their Groove Back?

Let’s ask the Oracle - Buffet Speaks

Advice from the Oracle - Buffet’s Tips for the Rest of Us

Food for thought - CAPE Chart

ECON

The US get an upgrade - US Economy Sees Upward Revision

The UK gets one too - UK Economy Sees Growth

Us Canucks outdo them both - Canada’s Economy Growing Strongly

He was an economist after all - Harper Says Plenty Left To Do

He ain’t kidding - Budget Deficit $40 Billion

Daily dose of fear mongering - Is Ben Bernanke Pulling a Weimar?

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

There’s a business opportunity here - Wall Street Falls in Love with Curling

What about the mines? - King Solomon’s Wall Found

Mulitverse…cooool - What Time is It?

The future of the magainze? - Conde Nast Jumps on iPad

The future of money? - Flexible, Frictionless and (Almost) Free

Iny, Miny, Miney, Moe - Canadian MBA Schools Ranks

Forget school, buy the Good Book - Leadership Advice from the Bible

I love this fear mongering stuff - An Uneven Collapse

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Halfway there.  I’m pacing myself.  Between the bars, the events, the concerts, sporadic (and unproductive) appearances at work, and my girl wanting to kill me for me and my friends destroying any chance of her getting a good night’s sleep I’m starting to realize I’m not 21 anymore. Lots of news, missing work, too much beer, too many events, not enough sleep…I’ve realized that hosting friends and the olympics is an endurance event all on its own.

Here’s a round-up with a bigger-than-usual RSIL section

ENERGY

Put it back where it came from - CCS: A Different Kind of Exploration

A growing field - Canadian Natural Gas: Big and Growing

Still just a science project, but feasible one day? - Oil Shale, a Future Source?

GREEN

The cockroach theory applies - The Continuing Climate Meltdown

Uranium to Georgia - U.S. Approves New Nuclear Reactors

West Coast style - Victoria Unveils 3 Clean-Energy Deals

It ain’t easy or cheap goin’ green - Boulder Finds it Tough to Go Green

METALS

The investment call of the last decade - Metal Prices Continue to Rise

BRIC

The shifting tides of exporters - A Shift in Export Power Houses

The shifting tides of export points - India Worries as Chine Builds Ports

But a desire for personal freedoms never changes - What Are They Afraid Of?

MARKETS

China selling US debt - China Unloads $34 Billion of US Debt

China buying US debt - China Finds New Way to Buy US Debt

Like dating a hyper-active manitc depressant - 2010: More Volatility

The investment call of the decade…maybe - Inflation or Deflation

ECON

A big fat Canadian IOU - Canadian Household Mortgage Debt Hits Record

It’s worth repeating - Canadians Sink Further Into Debt

Retiring lingering babyboomers are just the start - Crack That Nest Egg

Let’s review - U.S. Stimulus, One Year Later

We call it politically convenient - Deficit Hawks

How greasy is Greece? - Domino Theory

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

Matt Taibi, at it again - Wall Street’s Bailout Hustle

This is awesome - News Dots

Beyond Robson is getting better - Un(der)employed in Vancouver

Food for thought for the young and restless - The Lost Generation

Food for thought for the worn and weary - Be Smart About Money, Not Owned By It

Pessimism is the new optimism - Margaret Atwood and the End of Humanity

This doesn’t help - An Ugly Energy Transition

I need some cheering up - The 10 Best Olympic Girls of 2010

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Firstly, my heartfelt condolences to team Georgia and Nodar Kumaritashvili.  It’s a sad tragedy that will always be mentioned as a part of these games.  I think IOC President Jacques Rogge emotion embodies the collective feeling of sadness.

I only hope that the opening ceremonies served to highlight the solidarity of the international athletic community and our host nation of Canada for the Georgian team and Kumaritashvili’s family.

Here’s a round-up.

ENERGY

Beyond the Black Stuff - what the economist calls oil depletion

The Next Crisis - the Wall Street Journal names Peak Oil

The Energy of Avatars - every green-eco-blogger should read this

World’s Biggest Green Energy - the evolution of the energy matrix

Forget Oil, Think Food - a more pressing issue to be sure

CHINA

China Raises Reserve Rates, Again - more cold water on the party

China May Raise Wages Over Yuan Gain - US Dollar denouncers/goldbugs never every option

MARKETS

Canada Rising - we’re not only nice, we’re profitable

Canada Housing Bubble - Vancouver should get a special footnote

What to do in 2010 - everyone has the right to an opinion

ECON

EU to Help Greece - I guess deficits and Olympics both originate here

Why Greece Matters - the Lehmann Brothers of the Euro Zone?

What Greece May Embody - and now for the global recessions next performance

PIGS Are Still Ugly - it doesn’t matter how much lipstick you use

PIGS vs. US States - peas in a podd

Sovereign Default Truth? - I’m thinking ZeroHedge are just sadists

Charting the ‘Recovery’ - yup, total sadists

VAT Trap - get used to stuff like this

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

Future Gazing - All I know is I see a lot of Olympic partying in my immediate future

TED 2010 - the name Ted just doesn’t scream visionary to me

Brooklyn Decker - forget New York, it’s all about Brooklyn

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