June 18th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

newspaper-boyThe rainy week was worth a sunny Friday like this one. It’s true what they say, one day of sun in Vancouver and you forgive all the rain…now we just need to build more terraces.

I’m headed to Gastown tonight to check out Guilt and Co. with my brother for a few pints and muse about life, love and the total insanity of Montreal trading Halak (seriously, WTF).  Social engagements are few and far between in my life, so I’m looking forward to some quality time with the brother (whom I’m vicariously living through as he still has a dating life).

The entire gold camp is starting to really annoy me.  When the average joe starts talking about adding the precious metal to their portfolio and the Metro Newspaper starts advertising gold dealers, you know its gotta be somewhere near the top…but oh when to short?  The market, as many have learned, can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent.  Markets, like love,  are all about timing.

In oil news, sometimes only children and comedians have the ability to really say-it-like-it-is.  Case in point, Jon Stewart on American energy…watch it and weep laugh greenies.  Yes, there will likely be a white swan, but in the interim, prepare for an age of catastrophe (which means you buy the reinsurers and take a look at the crows).

With that, here’s some weekend reading:

ENERGY

BP is gonna pay (BBC) while the Big Oil gets a beat down in Washington (NYT)…and they deserve it as their culture lied about the size of the leak from the get go (MW) prompting hyperboles from the greens (New Rep)

How does the spill affect Russia? (FT)

The fact remains, we’ll never get off oil (BBC) and there is no adequent plan B (Rubin) (Wa Post) as any decline of demand from the OECD is more than offset by new demand in EM & BRIC (Insider) (FT)…making yesterday’s detractors into today’s proponents (Big Money), the oil sands a great asset (Globe), and Vancouver a major point of departure (Tyee)

I say again, short-term bullish (Post), long-term scary (Oil Drum) which is why you also want to own coal (Bloomberg) (NYT)

But there’s always the potential coal killer, natural gas (NYT) as we really be at the dawn of the gassy age (TIME) (Globe)

For BP’s Tony Hayward, these are what really oil-men look like (Forbes)

METALS

$1 Trillion in Afghan metals (NYT), and why it’s not really news (Insider) (Insider) and why the timing of the ’surprise’ announcement is a little suspect (Asia Times)

Ya, I know, gold is doing great (Post), it’s on all the front pages (NYT), and all sorts of analysis from it’s performance in a deflationary setting (Prag Cap), to price predictions (Post), to the comparisons of the metal (Globe) to the miners (MF) is now taking place

But folk, it was on the front page, which isn’t a great sign (Big Pic)

Look, I’m not saying that the gold play is over, but we may be entering the last quarter of it’s time in the spotlight.  Ya, ya, I know, debt-armageddon…but even desite Chinese stealth-buys (Reformed), gold is not that great over the long term (FT)…but I could be wrong as gold is creating it’s own dynamic (Infectious)

Chinese innovation hurts Canadian nickel (Globe), and Canadian miners are sucking our country dry (Post)

FOOD

With a booming food industry in EM (BBC), locusts in Australia and wetness in Saskatchewan (Post) I’m thinking it may be time to go long on food (Insider) (ZeroHedge)

More on peak water (EB)

GREEN

Obama does the Sisyphus in call to go green (BBC) by plugging in cars (WSJ) harnessing the wind (Ars) and imagining a post-fossil fuels future (Wasted)…but can it really happen? (Slate)

Regardless, China is winning the energy race (Atlantic), but not out of enviro-decency, out of the age-old catalyst to innovation, necessity (NYT)

Debating nuclear (TED) and carbon capture (Globe)

The future is rail (Bloomberg) and/or fuels from the lab, not the field (BWB)

EM & BRIC

No more aid to China or Russisa (BBC) because they don’t really need it (Narrative) and may be giving it to us one day  (Infectious) (Infectious)

India’s inflated (BBC) and it’s much lauded micro-finance market may be hollow (Bloomberg)

Meanwhile, China is inflating (BBC), but is it really? (CFM)

Pressure on the Yuan (Economist), but China isn’t budging (Globe).  Meanwhile, the growth of the Chinese middle class is going to fuel a bazillion sociology papers (NYT) whose effect on the US is still unsure (Big Money)

Russia is buying loonies (Bloomberg) and romance novels (Post), but is also dropping cap gains taxes (BBC) and may be the super BRIC (FT) along with central Europe (FT)

MARKETS

With the BDI breaking down (FT) and questions surrounding a low volume rally (Barrons) the worry is still rife that we’re in a for another beating (Insider) (MW) (Student)…and not just in equities (NYT)…and Chanos talks up his shorts (Insider)

So, needless to say, this market polarizes opinions and sets a great stage for a Bull vs. Bear battle (Insider) (Post)

A dollar bull (Big Pic), a dollar bear (Insider)

HFT monsters lurk about the market (Big Pic) (Atlantic)…but can David beat Goliath? (Abnormal)

ECON

US

Some bearishness about green shoots (Atlantic) the V-shape (Insider) employment (Bloomberg) a muni bonds (Wa Post)

And some bullishness about the double-dip (Big Pic) and unnoticed growth (Biz Week)

Fed gets a headache by talking deficit-double-speak (WSJ), but remains untouchable (WSJ) as two decades of greed unravel (ZeroHedge) and public assets become privet (Fortune) amid calls to start building things again (Prag Cap)

Lost trust (Biz Week) and the next crisis (Syndicate) for the much pursued American consumer (Big Pic)

With the Libertarians are on the loose (NYT) (WSJ), a view from the sane is a breath of fresh air (Big Pic)

CAN

With the new face of debt (Post) and income flatlining (P0st) the sentiment isn’t so rosy (Post)  and TD isn’t as bullish at RBC (Post)

EURO

The French and Germans are holding the tab (NYT) in a tight-rope walk to avoid the dreaded double-dip (WSJ) but pain is in the forecast (NYT) (Economist)

So far, the Spanish are doing better than the Greeks (BBC)

MACRO

Is a global recovery underway? (Reuters) (Big Pic) Or is it just the effects of doomsday capitalism (MW) (Naked) and can austerity work? (Slate)…and get used to the notion of a ‘working retirement’ (FT)

GEEK NEWS

The singularity movement is cool (NYT)

Flying avalanches (Wired) Martian oceans (Ars) and the pleasure principle (Cortex)

Treebeard was right (Wired) and U.S. migration maps (Forbes)

Waiting for the Genome payoff (Economist) (NYT)

Gutenberg on Wordpress - Videos from E3

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

More stuff about me and my generation (Globe) (Atlantic) (WSJ)

Hiding behind democracy (Economist)

Wealth is when you are, not where you are (PsyFi)

Relaxing is hard work (WSJ) and how to be Malcolm Gladwell (JGC)

The cool places to booze in Budapest (Economist)

Erika Nicole - Brittany Diana - Amanda Lewis

Sic

June 16th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

YouTube Preview Image

June 12th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

2010-world-cup-babes-16Who ever said nationalism is dead?  There is nothing like the World Cup, the people of the world playing the beautiful game.  It’s a pretty cool thing when a sporting event can evoke tears and laughter in the same breath.  I love it.

Well, except for the fact that Poland likely would have been in the tournament if my homeland’s best players wouldn’t be wearing German uniforms.  For what it’s worth, I’m cheering for South Africa, though I wouldn’t mind seeing the English dismantle the Americans today.

Anyways, aside from the financialization of commodities and the ETF-ization of everything else, here’s a round up of some weekend reads:

ENERGY

The plumes are for real (BBC) and the spill is larger than thought (Bloomberg) and the costs are gonna be nuts (Post).  Meanwhile, this is evolving into a political issue (NYT) and is likely a game-changer as the cheap oil is gone (Globe)

Knock-on effects, Norway bans deepwater drilling (Telegraph), Canada moves to monitor the arctic (Globe), the French warn of a new age of scrutiny (Post) and everyone else realizes the massive scope of deep-water drilling (Slate)

As bad as the spill is, it doesn’t make the oil sands green (Rubin), but that still doesn’t change the course of their development (Globe) or increasing production elsewhere (BBC)

The facts remain, our lives are because of oil, and the demand in terrifying (Bloomberg) (Biz Week), and the price has nowhere to go but up (Bloomberg) (Globe)

To which I reiterate my core investment outlook for energy, short-term bullish, long-term scary, because we’re in long twilight of oil (Mail) (Slate) and will have to adjust within my lifetime (NYT) (TED) whether we like it or not (Gregor)

…but that doesn’t mean I’m a bull for earth, wind and fire…I like the other fossil fuels in a big way, including gas (Infectious) (Burlington) (Globe) and coal (Bloomberg) (Gregor)

METALS

Gold is getting popular enough to short these days (Prag Cap) (AVC) despite what Sprott and the bugs thinks (Globe) (Globe)…it’s worse than death (Infectious)

The Russians get Uranium One in the end (Post)

Moly for water…weird (Post)

Siberia is great for the Chinese (NYT)

FOOD

Giant Chinese IPO (Globe) and locusts in Oz (Bloomberg)

GREEN

It’s hot in Asia (Tyee) and the debate about climate change is a killer (Post)

The winners of the  BP spill, geothermal (Insider) carbon traders (Post) and biofuels (Globe)

Beware the ethanol trap (Slate)

Spend more on green, says Gates (NYT)

The myth of the green consumer (Naked)

EM & BRIC

With EM going mainstream (Institutional) can it save the world economy? (Syndicate)

Serious labour shifts in China demand the utmost attention for any BRIC bull (NYT) (NYT) (Post) (NYT)

China is overhot, yes (NYT), but hot enough to annoy, or hot enough to burn? (Wa Post)

Washington pissed about the Yuan (WSJ)

Brazil is the king of the BRIC (BBC) (Bloomberg) (Globe)

Russians in the arcitc (VanSun)

Turkey is no turkey (FT)

MARKETS

The bears are loose! (Bespoke) (Post) (Biz Week) (ZeroHedge)

…so lets give them a report card (Biz Week)

And maybe take their consensus as a buy signal? (Bloomberg) (Big Pic)

Anatomy of a bubble (Big Pic) and a few strikes against equities (Infectious) (PsyFi)

1930s sucker rally, funny, scary, applicable? (Insider)

Volker on the warpath (NY Books)

ECRI as an invetment tool (Big Pic), but don’t forget the comics (Abnormal)

ECON

US

More stimulus (Atlantic) less stimulus (Atlantic) and figuring it all out (Atlantic)…and what happens when it ends? (CNBC)

So is there going to be a double-dip or not? (Big Pic) (Atlantic) (WSJ)…the opinions are polarizing (Big Pic) (Krugman)

One things is certain however, things have to change (NYT)

But there is room for hope (Biz Week) (Atlantic)

CAN

Up here things are hot (Post) making lots wonder how we did it (WSJ)…just ignore the bankruptcies (VanSun) or the fact that we may have only delayed our own bubble (Fundamental)

EURO

As the IMF is warning on debt levels (BBC) a blogger of oom saw it coming (NYT)

European austerity, country-by-country (BBC)

Who is holding all the Euro debt? (NYT)

Finland is in a double-dip (BBC) and Europe is getting old (DLC)

MACRO

G20, under stress (Post) and talking austerity (Globe) as deflation haunts the halls of the west (WSJ) (Insider)

I like Taleb (Infectious) a lot more than partyboy Roubini (Gawker)

Soros says its time for Act II (Bloomberg) as global imbalances diverge (Naked)

GEEK NEWS

Energy transitions (Oil Drum), synthetic life (TED), solar sails (Wired)

Tuition bubble (Carpe Diem), dissappeaering snakes (BBC), techno austerity (Econ)

Living in denial (New Sci), looking into the past to see the future (SMH)

String theory, getting stringy (Ars) (Ars)

Deux Ex: Human Revolution

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

We’re all loney (Tyee), and my generation may be lost (Globe)

Top 10 World Cup Commercials

Best World Cup Painted Bodies (Bleacher) (COED)

World Cup Fans! (COED)

Pamela Hayman

Sic

June 4th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

wegwI’m excited, which usually means trouble.

I had lunch with a great guy (very sharp) who just started his own consulting firm.  We got to talking, and I started to pitch him on some of my crazy start-up ideas.  My brain got too juiced and now I’m on the verge of pulling an all-nighter to finish a formal business plan and drive down to Palo Alto…everyone needs a fantasy.

I’ll go to the gym tonight, maybe blow off some exuberance there…but I’ve been bitten by the bug…I suppose it’s only a matter of time before the entrepreneurial infection takes over my entire system.

Meanwhile, I build seed capital.

Here’s some weekend reading:

ENERGY

As the hate grows (NYT) and the share price drops (Post) the size of the BP nightmare will give anyone pause (Big Pic)…not withstanding the fact that it is now hitting Florida (Post) could last until Christmas (Post) and maybe headed to the east coast (Wired)

Maybe a walk-away is the answer (Cortex)…or a nuke (YouTube)…or having not underestimated the risk in the first place (NYT)

Speculation always sees a silver lining though (Post)

While the reactionary moratorium may feel right now, it’ll have plenty of knock-on effects that will be just as painfiul (Rubin) (Huff Post)…and really doesn’t change anything as the US is still completely addicted to oil (Gregor) (Infectious) (Grist)

I’m the first to admit that I’m an oil & gas bull…but I’m also a human being, as far as the test results go at least, which means I’m as concerned as the long-term questions surrounding energy as any one (Globe) (Insider)

Oil Tankers in Vancouver (Tyee)

Peak coal helps with peak oil (Globe) as coal prices climb (Biz Week) and mines are kept open (Globe)

There’s the gas question too (Post)…but in the short-term, a big hurricane season (New Sci) may help gas finally break out (Quick Tape)

Taking the Train

METALS

Here’s a surprise, the World Gold Council likes gold (Min Jour), but so do a lot of other people (Post) (Daily Fin) (Big Pic)…which means the bulls are getting crowded…never a great thing…and the IMF hits the bid (WSJ)

Silver’s along for the ride too

China contols rare earth metals (NYT) (Insider)

Are weakening prices as sign of inherent weakness (Bloomberg) or the mere financialization of commodities? (WSJ) (FT)

FOOD

Massive Chinese IPO (Bloomberg), an agri-biz in general may have hidden Achilles heel (EB)

GREEN

Always lots of talk about ‘new’ energy (Newsweek) and cleaning things up (BBC) but it continues to be, literally, smoke and mirrors (FT)

Local Geothermal

EM & BRIC

You got your BRIC bulls (Globe) (FT) (Econ)

And you got your BRIC bears (Bloomberg) (Insider) (Econ)

But it’s all a work-in-progress (Globe)

That said, Chinese workers are gonna get more, with some serious knock-on effects (Globe) (Globe) (NYT)

MARKETS

You got your bulls (Globe) (Bloomberg) (Prag Cap)

You got your bears (Barrons) (Reformed) (Big Pic)

But you can bank on psychology (Big Pic) the lack of resolve (NYT) and that the guys in the suits continue to make out pretty damn good (Econ)

Too much info (Post) and too little retail (Prag Cap) and an stampede into options (Biz Week)

Chanos on dog watching (Insider)

Anatomy of a growth investor (PsyFi)

HFT, Out of Control

ECON

US

Fed is upbeat (WSJ) with the US growing (BBC) and working…except for the fact that most jobs were created by the government (WSJ)

Ugly charts and issues of US unemployment (Insider) (WSJ) (WSJ) (NYT) and it’s effect on the recovery (Post) (Barrons)

Jim Rodgers hates the US (Insider), and buffet hates muni-bonds (Bloomberg)

So if things are so bad, why is US debt still do popular? (Wa Post) (Atlantic)

One lump or two?

CAN

Canada is on fire (Bloomberg), but can we keep it up? (Post)

EURO

Greeks got their turn, now it’s Spain’s (Globe) (NYT) (Telegraph)…or Hungary (NYT)…but Ireland may have some lessons to give (Bloomberg)

ECB is nervous (Globe), and the Europeans are slow (Slate)

Dr. Doom gives his advice (Globe)

MACRO

OECD want entrepreneurs unleashed (Econ), while Krugman wants the OECD muzzled (Krugman) (Insider)

Global imbalances (Globe) and saving citizenry (NYT)

Inflate/deflate debate (Student)

Hello Ricardo! (ZeroHedge)

The impact of the irrelevant

GEEK STUFF

Breaking down a problem to solve it (Globe)

Motivation! (Big Pic)

iHumans (Ad Bust) visit a digital doctor (Globe) but emotional IQ still trumps tech IQ (Globe)

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

Student buried in debt (NYT) looking for hot jobs (Post)

Reboot your sleep cycle (Hacker) and beat procrastination (Insider)

Candice Swanepoel - Priscilla Caripan - Victoria Rays - Sophie Turner

Sic

June 1st, 2010 by VanCityGuy

sexy_robotAfter finally watching the mini-doc Quants, the Alchemists of Wall Street, (and reading the great article from Newsweek this morning) I’ve got one concern about the rise of the nerds and the algogrithmic trading they’ve unleashed upon financial markets, namely, the effects of an information cascade and it’s intrinsical nature to push the observer further and further away from the truth, or in respect to financial markets, real value.

First, watch the mini-Doc to learn how the math nerds who never got a date to prom rose to dominate Wall St. by unleashing trading machines which buy, sell and hedge according to mathematical formulas without human intervension.  Also known as algorithmic trading, it is the high-frequency trading (HFT) aspect of algo-trading that concerns me most as it participates in global financial markets at light-speed in order to act upon information faster than any human counterpart.

While I completely understand and appreciate the importance of algo trading for purposes such as market making, HFT really only serves the purposes of pure speculation and exacerbates trends to the point where price movements are dangerously exagerated.  Perhaps I’m a dinosaur (in my late-20s?!?!) but when HFT accounts for over 70% of all equity trading in the United States I don’t see how the idea of ‘investing’ (buying something because its inherent value is above the current price) applies any more in financial markets.

But profits are what matters, right?  So if algo-trading is bringing so much money in for the firms and hedge funds that employ it, what’s the problem?  Well, I’ll defer to some wisdom of the ages here and go with Homer, namely, everything has an Achilles Heel.  Enter my point about an information cascade.

In short, an information cascade occurs when groups of people observe the actions of others, and make the exact same same decisions, independent of their own intellect.  Basically, it’s monkey-see-monkey-do and it’s beem the marketing tactic par excellence of teenagers for generations.  While the direct results of an information cascade is Groupthink or a Herd Mentality, there is absolutely nothing to say that the black boxes of algo-trading aren’t susceptible to the same phenomena.  With the black box trading machines acting upon immediate inputs, they affect the price of whatever security they may be trading based on short-term influences rather than long-term valuations, thus distorting any price-to-value.  In turn, this effects the opinion and commentary of analysts, pundits  and the investing public who have to make valuations on prices that have nothing to do with actual long-term value.

There’s plenty of commentary on the web about HFT and the now notorious flash crash, so I won’t write a mini-speech here.  Am I wrong about alog-trading?  Perhaps, and call me a geezer, but I’m feeling algo-trading is really just dot-com day trading on steroids, and we all know how that ended.

Call me cranky, but we may need a Butlerian Jihad.

Sic

May 26th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

oil_barrel_standardThere are a lot of people married to the idea that our collective civlizations are speeding uncontrollably towards a brick wall in the form of runaway oil prices, and that once we hit this brick wall our entire economic structure will buckle and collapse, reverting us to an existence of smaller consumption and simpler living.

The idea, of course, is that of Peak Oil.  In a nutshell, it’s the argument that once the maximum rate of extraction of conventional global petroleum resources is reached (which we have reached), the rate of that extraction will enter terminal decline.

Makes sense, doesn’t it?  Sure, and I can’t disagree.  However, the issue I take with the entire Peak Oil crowd (aside from the fact that most of them are NOT geologists or engineers) is their insistence that the effects of Peak Oil will be relatively instant, painful and cataclysmic.

I disagree.

There are three reasons why the idea of Peak Oil is so popular.

1) it’s easy to understand
2) it’s alarmist IE sexy
3) it’s based on a truth, but not the whole truth

Peak Oil

We are not running out of oil anytime soon.  There is enough oil in the Athabasca Oil Sands to last us all a long, long time.  Add the ultra deep reservoirs of Brazil, Oil Shale and any undiscovered arctic oil and it becomes quickly apparent that anyone who says we’re running out of oil is out to lunch.

But while we’ve still got more oil than to know what to do with, most of it is expensive to exract and refine.  Whether it’s the cost of processing bitumen from oilsands or kerogen from oil shale or the logistical costs of drilling for ultra deep or arctic oil, the end result is the same - the price of the energy product (gasoline, deisel, whatever) goes up.

Point 1 - Peak Oil = the end of cheap enegry, but not the end of energy

The Oil Price

The oil price is derived from physical supply and demand fundamentals.  There is a lot of bickering about the role speculators play in the oil price, but aside from some arbitrage, the emotionally loaded concept of “excessive speculation” is just that, more emotion than fact.  When critics point out rising inventories at Cushing as evidence that a rising oil price is reflective of abusive speculation, it only shows the over-reliance of these obsevers on strictly American Demand.

Oil is the most globalized of all products, and it’s the first product (though other commodities have followed) that has experienced the effects of globalized demand.  There is simply no substitute for it, so using traditional American-centric metricis to gauge anticipated demand and relative price no longer work.  We all purchase oil from the same global sources, and in the last decade, the purchasers of oil have grown dramatically.

Point 2 - Oil Price = the number which reflects global demand, not western demand

Peak Price

So far, I haven’t really wavered from the Peak Oil crowd.  More expensive to extract, more global consumers, increased preasure on price.  Simple.  But it’s at this point in the argument where ‘Peakers’ usually inject some sort of post-apocalyptic vision of a crashing global economy instigated by an almost over-night realization that…oh crap…we’re out of oil…whaterwegonnado!!!

Come on guys.  Get real.

Oil is an important commidity, no doubt.  It’s the single most important commodity to our economic structure.  But it’s not at the same level of intimite importance as other commodities such as water and cereals.  Yes, the run-up to $147 a barrel was like a heart attack to the world economy, and yes, I’m a member of the minority who believe that it was the suddenly high oil price, not securitized American NINJA loans, that was the real catalyst for world recession.  However, as we drag ourselves out of the worst post-war recession in 60 years, the oil price is already hovering between at $70 and $85 a barrel.  As much as this price speaks to the strength of world demand, it also speaks to the entire system’s ability to weather and absorb these higher prices.

There will be a macro transformation due to higher energy costs, no question (one that may include a great speculative bubble of alternative/green energies that I would love to get infront of).  But that transition will not be coming on the heals of a worldwide catastrophe thanks to a relentless price surge for oil.  Welcome to the concept of Peak Price.

I must defer here to the father of the entire Peak Oil debate itself, geologist Colin Campbell, who has changed tune.  According to Campbell, the spike in oil prices in 2008 has itself been a catalyst for peak demand in the developed world.  Peak oil drove up prices in the first place, but Peak Oil itself has it’s own mechanisms.  The fact that the market has been to $147 a barrel is significant.  As we approach $100 a barrel, the organic response is not panic, because the market has been there, the organic result is increased conservation, efficiency, energy diversification and a relative peak in demand.  Oil will go through $100 a barrel, but baring a major war, it won’t run to $300.  Never underestimate the market’s ability to adapt.

Don’t believe me? Read for yourself.

From an investment perspective of course, this limits upside to owning any major oil producers, especially with oil already at relatively high levels.  The real growth area is junior producers and/or explorers, or cheaper high BTU energy sources such as coal and naturgal gas.  I’m long on all of them.

Point 3 - Peak Price = the max price the market will afford for energy, don’t underestimate it

Curve Balls

And, of course, there is always the curve-ball effect.  Peak Oil pundits are too eager to dismiss the game-changing potential of any technological breakthrough, which is stupid.  Just ask any nat gas guy what shale drilling has done to their industry…might as well just own frac sand.

Sic

May 21st, 2010 by VanCityGuy

jesus-habsI’ll be on a plane to Montreal soon after the market opens today, so I can only sit and wonder about about the shades of green or red my screens may be at my desk.  I’ll just have to console myself with the Habs win last night.

I’ve posted numerous times about how much I love Montreal, there’s no better city if you want to have fun.  I get in at 4pm local for yet another bachelor party for an old buddy, then the wedding in the Eastern Townships.  Monday is meetings, and them I’m back out west with a boatload of Schwatz`s.

Here a super-sized reading list (minus any Friday news).

ENERGY

BP tube is no solution (BBC) as the spill is only getting worse (Miami Herald) as giant oil plumes are discovered lurking below surface (NY Times) sending fears about BC`s coasts (Straight)

Despite rising risks (Post) reliance on the oil sands is unavoidable (NY Times) and hopefully a cleaner methodology as well (Post)…but China will still take it regardless (Rubin) and they ain’t picky as Syria (Bloomberg) Iraq (Bloomberg) and good ol’Saskatchewan (Globe) all attract Chinese capital as well

Long term oil is great, short-term it’s as susceptible to price contagion as anything else (Post)…not to mention non-OPEC supply (Calgary Herald)

Some scary stuff from the EIA 2010 report (Insider) (Alt Energy)

I’m sure happy I went long on Nat Gas in March, despite the shale glut (Globe)…but should I be averaging up? (Bespoke)

South Africa cutting coal exports (Biz Week) might make one bullish on the nastiest hydrocarbon, but this compelling chart of coal use does make one bullish (Gregor)

Did oil cause the crisis?

METALS

With Greece on fire, you’d think gold would be doing better (Insider) (Atlantic)…which gives the gold bears a little more volume (ZeroHedge)

Are base metal prices a deflation tell? (Barron’s)…if so, it’s bad for Teck and the TSX (Post)

The contagion of the Aussie mining tax may spread (Bloomberg)

Mini-nuke-plants…the Uranium bulls are hoping (Bloomberg)

FOOD

Want to play China?  Play fertilizer (London Times), but what about water? (Economist)

GREEN

Krugman talks up warming (Krugman) and Tyee down CCS (Tyee)

Tyee talks up smart grids (Tyee) and investing in them (Free Press)

With China holding the cards (BBC) it may all be too late, so trade it that way (Market Watch)

EM & BRIC

The Chinese markets got ugly first (NY Times) (Fortune) wich bodes ill for the recovery (Globe)…but perhaps great for the China shorts (Biz Week) (Insider)

Is the decoupling myth busted? (Reformed), or is it evolving right along with the G20 (Globe)

Indian inflation (BBC) and Polish power (Insider)

Again, I’m haunted by Jeff Rubin’s calls

MARKETS

Regular bears are roaring (Big Pic) uber bears are screaming (Reformed) amid calls for a shity decade for equity investors (Reuters) (Fortune)…so find a good home (Biz Week)

But the insdier’s are buying (Prag Cap)

Despite the fact that Wall St. is for poker players (LA Times) it’s still the greatest show in Earth (Big Pic) where only the money matters, not your opinion (PsyFi)

Prep for deflation, hedge for inflation (MF)

ECON

US

What’s up with US zombie spending? (WSJ) with inflation at generational lows (NY Times) and deflationary flags poping up (Prag Cap)

More Greek/US comparisons (Wa Post) (Reuters)

Jobless claims jump (WSJ) and 2010 grads are uneeded (Bloomberg)…except if you want to break into finance (Atlantic)

Given the dreary state of the US housing market (Atlantic) (Bloomberg) (Forbes) I have to admire the optimism here (WSJ) but am left scatching my head about Vegas (NY Times)

CAN

We shouldn’t be smug, we can’t afford it (Globe) and much of the wealth we do have may be fake (Student) (Street)

The New West in China (VanSun)

EURO

Germany turns off the lights (Globe) amid snowball (NY Times) and iceberg (Post) fears…more good news for the shorts (Boomberg)

UK is bloated (BBC) and broke (Bloomberg)

MACRO

Credit crisis 2.0 (Globe) except this time it’s a sovereign issue (Market Watch)

But Doomsdayers beware the silver lining

GEEK NEWS

YouTube growing up (NY Times) and Google skewering nano-tech (Ars)

Iron Butterfly (Wired)

It’s alive! (BBC) (Economist)

Cognitive Bias

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

Skip college (Atlantic)

Life is better at 70 (Ars)

No good men (Ars)

Red Dead (Wired)

Over 30 Under 30 - Fake or Not? - Jesse Preston - Arianny Celeste - Ashley Greene - Miss Oklahoma

Sic

May 15th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

kitsbeach1Wow, Kits is beach and BBQ season is screaming my name.  Last weekend was Saskatoon, next weekend is Montreal, but this weekend is 100% Vancouver beach (and maye a beer or twelve on the patio at Local).

Here’s some reading for the weekend, hopefully done near somewhere warm, sandy and with plenty of beautiful things to admire.

Summer time, you were too long coming.

ENERGY

The gulf oil spill is costly (Post) and the BP relief well may just make things worse (Bloomberg) but is it the end of off shore?  Don’t bet on it (Globe)

Meanwhile, Clayoquot Sound x 100,000 is ramping up as big oil eyes BC coast (Straight) with assurances that it can naviagte BC waters (VanSun) while drilling Canada’s deepest offshore well is well underway (VanSun)

Is Africa the crude frontier? (Globe)  China seems to think so with a $23 billion vote (BBC)…but they like Canada just as much (Post)

Canada has gas (Globe) and CNQ likes that just fine (Post)

A shift in American driving patterns (NY Times)

METALS

With the fear factor pushing gold (Globe) Sprott is able to grab a premium (ZeroHedge) and (!) you can get it now from a vending machine (Post)…how about some level-headedness folks (Crossing Wall St) which may lead to the idea that gold is (sorry gold bugs) overbought (BizWeek)

Regardless, my best fear focussed trade has been silver anyways (Bespoke)

Dr. Copper, selling off (Insider) and the Commodities Con (Prag Cap)

Miners in Africa (Globe)

FOOD

Chinese now importing American corn (Globe) as farmland still attracts as an investment (Reuters)

GREEN

US Climate bill makes its debut (NY Times) while the academics scream for more (BBC) end emerging economies don’t give a rat’s ass (BBC)

Smart gribs from BC (Tyee) and thinking abotu batteries (Gregor)

EM & BRIC

Chinese asset inflation (BBC) and equity bear market (Student)

Still, emerging Asia grabs more imports than anyone else (WSJ) luring Soros into Asian e-commerce (Globe)

BRIC banks on the rise (Economist)

With an investment eye on Africa (Globe), is it really ready to wake-up? (Globe)…the continent already leads the way in mobile money (Globe)

MARKETS

Rosenburg make even make a 400 point rally look bearish (Insider), but others make a good point that the super bubble never really deflated (Globe) making one question the equity premium (Atlantic) and start to buy bonds (MF)

Wall St. is too clever by half (New Yorker) in need of better regulation (NY Times) and a tax (HBR)

Flash crash culprit revealed (Reuters) but conspiracies still abound (Big Pic)

You think Wall St. is bad?  Welcome to Howe Street (VanSun)

ECON

US

Banks still failing (Big Pic), Fannie still bleeding cash (Bloomberg), an unemployment problem that may be structural (NY Times) and you see why Roubini doesn’t like the US (ZeroHedge)

Greeks and Yanks compared (NY Times), but the Greeks don’t have the circus (Big Pic)

But there is an upside, like virtue in vice (WSJ) and an ingrained American need to spend (BBC)

Bailout nation author reflects (Big Pic)

CAN

More Canuck’s are working (Globe) but we’ve got out debt issues too (Globe)

Saskatchewan’s premier Wall, the guy is a beauty (Globe)

EURO

Biggest bailout ever (BBC) (WSJ), but is it the contagion Keynesian? (Post) and will it work? (Atlantic) and does it hurt the ECB’s credability? (Economist)

Rosenburg hates it (ZeroHedge) and so does Rogers (Bloomberg) and the Euro may eventually as well (Bloomberg)

MACRO

Europe is a wake-up call (Globe) as it’s the end of the road for bailouts (Globe) and the IMF is getting fed up (Globe)

Forget the GDP (NY Times)

GEEK NEWS

80% of Canada is online (Post) YouTube is better than textbooks (Globe) and welcome to the cloud (Post)

Sociology and WoW (Ars)

Bionic! (Economist)  Poor Mousie! (Wired) Cheater! (Ars)

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

The next generation of female spenders (WSJ)

The last generation of female binger drinkers (COED)

Miss Perry may be No.1 (Maxim) but Miss Greene is fire in a bottle (IDLYITW)

Purrito

Sic

May 9th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

mommas_boy2I was in Saskatchewan all week so blogging fell off the priority list.    And today, of course, is mother’s day, so again, mom beat out the blog.

Highlight one of the week, I met Brad Wall, the premier of Saskatcheawn.  Smart, young, and proactive, he’s the sort that almost makes you wish you were from Saskatchewan.

Highlight two of the week, I was away from my desk to watch the market blip of the decade.  Nothing like a bit of volatility to get our stomachs hearts pumping, no?

Anyways, here`s a short list of weekend reading.

ENERGY

BP is having problems with the cover-thingy (Reuters) and gulf production is gonna hurt (Bloomberg)

Is this another Three Mile Island scenario? (Rubin)… because it’s starting to look like it (GOOD).  But what about the practicalities? (NY Times)

Meanwhile, count the oil sands as a blessing (Ottawa Cit)

$100 barrel oil, despite this week’s mayhem, poses problems (FT) and a fork in the road (NY Times)

METALS

Thanks for sending the business to Canada mate! (BBC)

GREEN

Welcome to Eaarth (NY Times)…or not (Ars Tech)

EM & BRIC

With Chinese maids getting into real-estate (Biz Week) you have a hard time poking fun at Faber (Bloomberg)

MARKETS

998 points, that one hell of a fat fucking finger (NY Times) prompting legitimate speculation over the Michelin Man excuse (Big Pic) and the quick and/or corrupt actions of a few nimble traders (NY Times)

CDOs for dummies (Big Pic) while the TED spread widens (WSJ)

Against the flow (Globe) when the market crashes (PsyFi)

Get some cash to reassure yourself (WSJ) before reading Dr. Doom’s latest (NY Times)

A Buffet bubble?…bold words (Bloomberg)

ECON

US

More jobs! (Big Pic) but Rosie rains on the parade (Big Pic)

Looking at the American family (Visual) and learning to live in a recession (NY Times) that Greenspan’s ego caused (Bloomberg)

CAN

Despite a canuck real estate bubble (NY Times) we’re an economic star (Econ)

EURO

Chart the debt crisis (ZeroHedge) and dismiss the myths (WaPost) as it waves out (NY Times) and the PIGGS come to the trough (Nat Post)

MACRO

What’s Rosie worried about?…sorry I asked (FT)

GEEK NEWS

Nano-scale! (Ars Tech) and Cleo’s tomb! (BBC)

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

Adaptation (Econ)

Robert Downer Jr. (Rolling Stone)

An American apologist (Epicurean)

Jessica Jane Clement

Sic

April 30th, 2010 by VanCityGuy

aegWeekends are like relationships.  Friday is the thrilling first phase, all excitement when everything is new.  Saturday is the contended middle phase, where it’s nice, but not as exciting as it used to be.  Sunday is the point where you know it’s over and you’re just waiting for either side to raise the issue.

…a depressing way to look at the weekend.

But hey, at least it’s Friday.

Gonna be a great weekend for hockey, starting with the Habs tonight and then the Canucks tomorrow.  I don’t really know anyone who isn’t in love with Halak right now.

Here’s a weekend reading list…or just skip it and read this (Big Pic)

ENERGY

As efforts mount to contain the Louisiana oil spill (Nat Post) the immediate effects of this is of coures are on further offshore drilling (BBC) and any hopes for the arctic (Globe)

Still, despite this calamity, oil is still king (Nat Post), beautifully illustrated by an Icelandic volcano (Nat Post) and oily equities may be looking good (Insider)

Centrail Asia continues to host the Great Game as the pipelines are head east (Asia Times) while the energy risk itself rises (Infectious)

Rubin can’t be totally right…can he? (FT)

Oil sands pipeline vs rainforest, sounds like the script for Avatar 2 (Globe)

Ottawa’s ‘no’ to coal is a ‘yes’ to gas (Globe) which it what Shell and Total see (Biz Week).   But with so much gas (FT), how does one play the gas market (Post)…or is the shale fake? (Oracle)

Oil shale, still in the back of my mind (Reuters)

METALS

With gold hitting highs (Globe), it is really decoupling from the dollar? (Post)

Either way, some heavies have bought the gold stuff (ZeroHedge)

More peak fun, this time phosphorous (FP)

FOOD

Surgar (Economist) and pork (Bloomberg)

GREEN

Cape Cod wind farms (NY Times) and a boom in wind (Bloomberg)

Energy efficiency in BC, at least according to the Libs (VanSun)

Still, you need to be in the green (Post) to really be green (Post)

Cap-and-trade, it just can’t stick (Economist)

EM & BRIC

Western sales are hitched to the dragon (Globe) and we’re looking for more (Globe)

You can’t be serious…more stimulus? (Bloomberg)

Norway and Russia make nice (BBC)

Brazil’s got great credit (Bloomberg) and tax deductible boob jobs (Bloomberg)

But opportunity abounds (Post)

MARKETS

Taibbi really hates Wall St (RS), but hey, they are crooks (BBC), who abuse the myth of the ’sophisticated investor’ (Big Money) while relying on a bull rally to erase past sins (New Yorker)

Sick’em Spitzer…but remember to keep your pants on (Post)

Future can’t look like the recent past (NY Times) and smart(?) money is moving out in May (MF)

Still going, the big inflate/deflate debate (Prag Cap)

A bubbly decade (Big Pic) that needs disecting (Spectator)

Buffet’s Bets (Post)

Alchemists of Wall St. (Big Pic)

ECON

US

American growth (NY Times) and the best chart you’ve never seen (Big Pic)

But many Americans feel decidedly unstimulated (Atlantic) and one Fed President still dissenting (WSJ)

Systemic angst (WSJ) (Wa Post) and a VAT explanation (Atlantic)

Rosenburg is exactly the funest guy in the world (ZeroHedge) (Insider)

Where did all the money go? (NY Times)

CAN

Canadian growth (Post) which makes up popular (Post)

Thank our houses, says Rosie (Globe), but not just yet (Globe), because we don’t actually own them (Post)

Saskaboom (Globe)

EURO

Greece is junk (NY Times) in a death spiral (BBC) facing austerity (BBC) and fighting for survival (Bloomberg) among a set of scenarios (BBC)

Question, is Greece a Lehman Bros? (Post) given the states of Spain (BBC) and Portugal (BBC)…Roubini would say yes (Bloomberg) while Rosie just fumes (Prag Cap)

GEEK

Indy Film (NY Times) & Feathered Dinosaurs (Wired)

Youth & Paradigm Shifts (Cortex), Psychopaths & Morality (Cortex)

Found: Noah’s Ark (TIME)

RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)

My generation is broke (End) and our Arts degrees ammount for squat (Big Money)

Nice girls finish last (NY Times)

Who says football guys are dumb? Not Myron Rolle (ESPN)

Back to the city (HBR)

How to treat your money (GQ)

Serinda Swan - Kelly Brook

Sic