The rainy week was worth a sunny Friday like this one. It’s true what they say, one day of sun in Vancouver and you forgive all the rain…now we just need to build more terraces.
I’m headed to Gastown tonight to check out Guilt and Co. with my brother for a few pints and muse about life, love and the total insanity of Montreal trading Halak (seriously, WTF). Social engagements are few and far between in my life, so I’m looking forward to some quality time with the brother (whom I’m vicariously living through as he still has a dating life).
The entire gold camp is starting to really annoy me. When the average joe starts talking about adding the precious metal to their portfolio and the Metro Newspaper starts advertising gold dealers, you know its gotta be somewhere near the top…but oh when to short? The market, as many have learned, can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent. Markets, like love, are all about timing.
In oil news, sometimes only children and comedians have the ability to really say-it-like-it-is. Case in point, Jon Stewart on American energy…watch it and weep laugh greenies. Yes, there will likely be a white swan, but in the interim, prepare for an age of catastrophe (which means you buy the reinsurers and take a look at the crows).
With that, here’s some weekend reading:
ENERGY
BP is gonna pay (BBC) while the Big Oil gets a beat down in Washington (NYT)…and they deserve it as their culture lied about the size of the leak from the get go (MW) prompting hyperboles from the greens (New Rep)
How does the spill affect Russia? (FT)
The fact remains, we’ll never get off oil (BBC) and there is no adequent plan B (Rubin) (Wa Post) as any decline of demand from the OECD is more than offset by new demand in EM & BRIC (Insider) (FT)…making yesterday’s detractors into today’s proponents (Big Money), the oil sands a great asset (Globe), and Vancouver a major point of departure (Tyee)
I say again, short-term bullish (Post), long-term scary (Oil Drum) which is why you also want to own coal (Bloomberg) (NYT)
But there’s always the potential coal killer, natural gas (NYT) as we really be at the dawn of the gassy age (TIME) (Globe)
For BP’s Tony Hayward, these are what really oil-men look like (Forbes)
METALS
$1 Trillion in Afghan metals (NYT), and why it’s not really news (Insider) (Insider) and why the timing of the ’surprise’ announcement is a little suspect (Asia Times)
Ya, I know, gold is doing great (Post), it’s on all the front pages (NYT), and all sorts of analysis from it’s performance in a deflationary setting (Prag Cap), to price predictions (Post), to the comparisons of the metal (Globe) to the miners (MF) is now taking place
But folk, it was on the front page, which isn’t a great sign (Big Pic)
Look, I’m not saying that the gold play is over, but we may be entering the last quarter of it’s time in the spotlight. Ya, ya, I know, debt-armageddon…but even desite Chinese stealth-buys (Reformed), gold is not that great over the long term (FT)…but I could be wrong as gold is creating it’s own dynamic (Infectious)
Chinese innovation hurts Canadian nickel (Globe), and Canadian miners are sucking our country dry (Post)
FOOD
With a booming food industry in EM (BBC), locusts in Australia and wetness in Saskatchewan (Post) I’m thinking it may be time to go long on food (Insider) (ZeroHedge)
More on peak water (EB)
GREEN
Obama does the Sisyphus in call to go green (BBC) by plugging in cars (WSJ) harnessing the wind (Ars) and imagining a post-fossil fuels future (Wasted)…but can it really happen? (Slate)
Regardless, China is winning the energy race (Atlantic), but not out of enviro-decency, out of the age-old catalyst to innovation, necessity (NYT)
Debating nuclear (TED) and carbon capture (Globe)
The future is rail (Bloomberg) and/or fuels from the lab, not the field (BWB)
EM & BRIC
No more aid to China or Russisa (BBC) because they don’t really need it (Narrative) and may be giving it to us one day (Infectious) (Infectious)
India’s inflated (BBC) and it’s much lauded micro-finance market may be hollow (Bloomberg)
Meanwhile, China is inflating (BBC), but is it really? (CFM)
Pressure on the Yuan (Economist), but China isn’t budging (Globe). Meanwhile, the growth of the Chinese middle class is going to fuel a bazillion sociology papers (NYT) whose effect on the US is still unsure (Big Money)
Russia is buying loonies (Bloomberg) and romance novels (Post), but is also dropping cap gains taxes (BBC) and may be the super BRIC (FT) along with central Europe (FT)
MARKETS
With the BDI breaking down (FT) and questions surrounding a low volume rally (Barrons) the worry is still rife that we’re in a for another beating (Insider) (MW) (Student)…and not just in equities (NYT)…and Chanos talks up his shorts (Insider)
So, needless to say, this market polarizes opinions and sets a great stage for a Bull vs. Bear battle (Insider) (Post)
A dollar bull (Big Pic), a dollar bear (Insider)
HFT monsters lurk about the market (Big Pic) (Atlantic)…but can David beat Goliath? (Abnormal)
ECON
US
Some bearishness about green shoots (Atlantic) the V-shape (Insider) employment (Bloomberg) a muni bonds (Wa Post)
And some bullishness about the double-dip (Big Pic) and unnoticed growth (Biz Week)
Fed gets a headache by talking deficit-double-speak (WSJ), but remains untouchable (WSJ) as two decades of greed unravel (ZeroHedge) and public assets become privet (Fortune) amid calls to start building things again (Prag Cap)
Lost trust (Biz Week) and the next crisis (Syndicate) for the much pursued American consumer (Big Pic)
With the Libertarians are on the loose (NYT) (WSJ), a view from the sane is a breath of fresh air (Big Pic)
CAN
With the new face of debt (Post) and income flatlining (P0st) the sentiment isn’t so rosy (Post) and TD isn’t as bullish at RBC (Post)
EURO
The French and Germans are holding the tab (NYT) in a tight-rope walk to avoid the dreaded double-dip (WSJ) but pain is in the forecast (NYT) (Economist)
So far, the Spanish are doing better than the Greeks (BBC)
MACRO
Is a global recovery underway? (Reuters) (Big Pic) Or is it just the effects of doomsday capitalism (MW) (Naked) and can austerity work? (Slate)…and get used to the notion of a ‘working retirement’ (FT)
GEEK NEWS
The singularity movement is cool (NYT)
Flying avalanches (Wired) Martian oceans (Ars) and the pleasure principle (Cortex)
Treebeard was right (Wired) and U.S. migration maps (Forbes)
Waiting for the Genome payoff (Economist) (NYT)
Gutenberg on Wordpress - Videos from E3
RSIL (Random Shit I Liked)
More stuff about me and my generation (Globe) (Atlantic) (WSJ)
Hiding behind democracy (Economist)
Wealth is when you are, not where you are (PsyFi)
Relaxing is hard work (WSJ) and how to be Malcolm Gladwell (JGC)
The cool places to booze in Budapest (Economist)
Erika Nicole - Brittany Diana - Amanda Lewis
Sic
